The World Cup of Pokémon 2023 - Round 1 [TBs at post #311/335]

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Amaranth

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Round 1 has concluded with the following standings.

r1 standings.png


Spain and US West will be randomized for 2nd/3rd seed. (They may agree on any 4fun method of tiebreaking instead.)

Italy will play Oceania, and India will play United Kingdom, in 3v3 tiebreakers for 7th and 8th respectively.
US Northeast will play Bangladesh in a relegation tiebreaker.
Managers are to send in their lineups by today, July 3rd, 10:00 PM GMT+2.
Aurella -Howkings / So Noisy Mikaav / Glue Gingy / false Tom Bus / obii teal6
(I already received Bangladesh's lineup)
 

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ima

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“Spain and US West will be randomized for 2nd/3rd seed. (They may agree on any 4fun method of tiebreaking instead.)”

Contacted this afternoon, awaiting response still but I suggested a randbats manager fight or an SV showdown:zonger:

or a bo3 karaoke battle
 

Amaranth

is a Site Content Manageris a Forum Moderatoris a Community Contributoris a Top Tiering Contributoris a Top Contributoris a Dedicated Tournament Hostis a Tournament Director Alumnusis a Social Media Contributor Alumnusis a Community Leader Alumnusis a Past SPL Champion
UPL Champion
Round 1 Prediction Tournament Recap

Out of 120 people who submitted prediction forms, the winner of the prediction tournament is Drifting, who edged out Beka by just 1 point. Thank you all for participating!

According to Mass Opinion, the biggest individual upsets (sorted by biggest difference in avg expected wins) were:
5. Mushfiq > Punny (1.958 - 0.350 = 1.608)
4. Soumav > INSULT (2.3 - 0.625 = 1.675)
3. SKC44 > Vert (2.083 - 0.358 = 1.725)
2. SKC44 > crying (2.191 - 0.358 = 1.833)
1. Carkoala > ABR (2.391 - 0.550 = 1.841)

Congratulations to Carkoala and to Team Bangladesh on their successful bounty hunting.

Many players expected to do well have let down their fans - out of 128 players, rank 5 ABR, rank 6 INSULT, rank 7 Ox the Fox, rank 18 3d, and rank 22 M Dragon all went 0-3.
On the other hand, a few players proved the haters wrong and won all 3 games - rank 127 SKC44 and rank 126 Carkoala were particularly notable, but rank 118 Ruft, rank 96 Attribute, and rank 92 Kushalos all deserve mention.

Finchinator majorly improved on his performance last year, where his prediction form contained the second coldest takes of all. This year he earned first place. Him and jetou mimicked Mass Opinion the closest by far, finishing unsurprisingly pretty close to the middle of the pack in 77th and 41st respectively.
Finchinator's form was so unbearably devoid of hot takes that, numerically, his hottest take was a 2-1 (RggV, predicted 0,966 wins on average by Mass Opinion). Stellar work Finch.

On the other end of the spectrum, Mister Magnus's deranged predictions netted him 14th place. Notably, he was the only player to predict Carkoala's 3-0 correctly, and despite predicting Europe to finish 7-17 rather than 17-7, he overall made up points against most other predictors by correctly predicting US Northeast's downfall (though he still overrated them slightly, giving them an 11-13 rather than their actual final record, 10-14).
However, disagreeing with Mass Opinion is not a free ticket to high placements - the next 4 people with hottest takes, Albret, Kaif, BIG loven, and YungTrashLord all finished 95th or lower, with Kaif in particular only being two points off last place.
BIG loven is also notable for having the single hottest prediction of anybody - predicting xavgb to go 0-3. That one did not end well for him.

Congratulations to Enzonana on finishing dead last. That takes skill too.

Team Rank Statistics

US Northeast was predicted 1st on average, with 17.305 expected wins. They finished 13th with 10 wins (-7.305).
Not a single person correctly predicted them to go 10-14.
Their biggest believers were Ravenna and Perish Song (22-2), with nine others predicting 21-3.
Their biggest haters were YungTrashLord (2-22), Mister Magnus, Kaif (11-13), BIG loven and Hipmonlee (12-12).

US South was predicted 2nd on average, with 14.997 expected wins. They finished 12th with 11 wins (-3.997).
Malekith, Hipmonlee, and Astoria predicted their record correctly.
Their biggest believers were Xrn, aesf (24-0), jcbc (22-2), and four others (19-5).
Their biggest haters were giove97 (8-16), Altthiel, Triangles, NHelioX7 (9-15), and four others (10-14).

Spain was predicted 3rd on average, with 13.847 expected wins. They finished 2nd with 14 wins (+0.153).
29 people predicted their record correctly.
Their biggest believers were Malekith, Livio elTito (24-0), Dorron (23-1), Mandibuladel5555 (22-2), Dread Arceus (19-5).
Their biggest haters were lolebruh (6-18), jcbc (7-17), YungTrashLord (8-16), and nine others (10-14).

Italy was predicted 4th on average, with 13.814 expected wins. They finished 7th with 12 wins (-1.814).
9 people predicted their record correctly.
Their biggest believers were Pais (23-1), Enzonana (22-2), giove97, Mister Magnus (21-3), and s7a (20-4).
Their biggest haters were BIG loven (6-18), Rewer (7-17), Delta4, jcbc (8-16), and Albret (9-15).

Europe was predicted 5th on average, with 12.779 expected wins. They finished 1st with 17 wins (+4.221).
Heika, We Three Kings, frickEDmt, A Welcome Guest, -Tsunami-, and Axrtix predicted their record correctly.
Their biggest believers were Eeveeto (24-0), Lily (23-1), Beka (18-6), and the six people mentioned above (17-7).
Their biggest haters were lolebruh (4-20), vani, Mister Magnus, Chiles Habaneros, and Rubyblood (7-17).

United Kingdom was predicted 6th on average, with 12.646 expected wins. They finished 9th with 12 wins (-0.646).
20 people predicted their record correctly.
Their biggest believers were Stareal, Triangles, Aigis Toaster (24-0), LORD SAGIS (18-6), 1 True Lycan and s7a (17-7).
Their biggest haters were Slip, BIG loven (8-16), Roller K, RaiZen1704, aquavanilla, Nat, -Tsunami-, and jcbc (9-15).

India was predicted 7th on average, with 12.496 expected wins. They finished 8th with 12 wins (-0.496).
15 people predicted their record correctly.
Their biggest believers were frickEDmt (22-2), Mikaav (21-3), AtraX Madara, YungTrashLord, and MAVERICK SHOOTERS (20-4).
Their biggest haters were BIG loven (6-18), We Three Kings, Livio elTito (7-17), and six others (8-16).

Germany was predicted 8th on average, with 12.291 expected wins. They finished 5th with 14 wins (+1.709).
13 people predicted their record correctly.
Their biggest believers were sylvi, Albret (24-0), MichaelderBeste2 (21-3), xray (18-6), and five others (16-8).
Their biggest haters were One Last Kiss (5-19), Mandibuladel5555, Dread Arceus, Cono de la Corrèze, and blarghlfarghl (8-16).

Canada was predicted 9th on average, with 12.274 expected wins. They finished 15th with 8 wins (-4.274).
Quartosa, One Last Kiss, and Enzonana predicted their record correctly.
Their biggest believers were Jytcampbell (24-0), gum (19-5), Beka (18-6), blarghlfarghl and NHelioX7 (17-7)
Their biggest haters were Triangles (6-18), frickEDmt, Malekith (7-17), and the three people mentioned above (8-16).

US West was predicted 10th on average, with 11.532 expected wins. They finished 3rd with 14 wins (+2.468).
14 people predicted their record correctly.
Their biggest believers were BIG loven (21-3), blarghlfarghl (19-5), Alpha1013 (18-6), Roller K (17-7), and aquavanilla (16-8).
Their biggest haters were Albret (5-19), Mister Magnus, MichaelderBeste2 (6-18), Mikaav, Dread Arceus, and xray (7-17).

Oceania was predicted 11th on average, with 10.981 expected wins. They finished 10th with 12 wins (+1.019).
16 people predicted their record correctly.
Their biggest believers were Hipmonlee (24-0), ninjadog (17-7), zS, A Welcome Guest, and jcbc (16-8).
Their biggest haters were Kaif (4-20), One Last Kiss, aesf (5-19), Hiro', Aigis Toaster, and Livio elTito (6-18).

US Midwest was predicted 12th on average, with 10.931 expected wins. They finished 6th with 13 wins (+2.069).
10 people predicted their record correctly.
Their biggest believers were kythr (18-6), Leavers, aquavanilla (17-7), Expulso, lolebruh, and jcbc (16-8).
Their biggest haters were Jytcampbell (0-24), Pais, Enzonana (5-19), Sahki, and Livio elTito (6-18).

France was predicted 13th on average, with 10.507 expected wins. They finished 4th with 14 wins (+3.493).
Thootjuh, Tuthur, NHelioX7, YungTrashLord, and Enzonana predicted their record correctly.
Their biggest believers were mimilimi (22-2), Quartosa (19-5), Hiro' (17-7), Mister Magnus, and Altthiel (16-8).
Their biggest haters were giove97, RoiDadadou, AtraX Madara, paolode99, and Ravenna (5-19).

Belgium was predicted 14th on average, with 9.989 expected wins. They finished 11th with 11 wins (+1.011).
16 people predicted their record correctly.
Their biggest believers were RoiDadadou (22-2), Rubyblood (21-3), Mister Magnus, Eoward (17-7), Heika, and MSnt (16-8).
Their biggest haters were frickEDmt, Hayburner (4-20), Roller K, false, Leavers, terrors, and MAVERICK SHOOTERS (5-19).

Latin America was predicted 15th on average, with 8.189 expected wins. They finished 16th with 8 wins (-0.189).
27 people predicted their record correctly.
Their biggest believers were Livio elTito (21-3), Mandibuladel5555 (16-8), One Last Kiss, BIG loven (15-9), corvere, and Celever (14-10).
Their biggest haters were Quartosa (2-22), HANTSUKI, Rewer (3-21), and five others (4-20).

Bangladesh was predicted 16th on average, with 7.130 expected wins. They finished 14th with 10 wins (+2.870).
Hayburner, Amaranth, LpZ, -Tsunami-, Quint_, and Astoria predicted their record correctly.
Their biggest believers were Kaif (24-0), YungTrashLord (16-8), Hiro', aesf (14-10), Celever (12-12).
Their biggest haters were Heika (2-22), Beka, Quartosa, giove97, MAVERICK SHOOTERS (3-21), and sixteen others (4-20).


Other Miscellaneous Stats
This year marked the return of team UK, who had last made the top16 in 2019, as well as the debuts of two teams, Bangladesh and Belgium, that had not made main event before.

Last year, I said this:
The longest active not-making-playoff streak, on the other hand, is held by Asia and still going strong (2017-2022), tying Team UK's 6-year record (2014-2019) - which ended due to relegation and not due to making playoffs. This does not bode well for Asia.
Asia's streak, too, has ended due to relegation. RIP. They were one of 6 teams (now 5) to take part in the top 16 round robin every year since its inception in 2009.

Team UK, on the other hand, have a chance to make playoffs for the first time since 2013 (!). This would tie the biggest gap between playoff appearances, a record currently held by US South (2009 - 2019, through seven years of nonexistence).

France and Germany have both crossed 200 total Round 1 wins, at 209 and 205 respectively, though they are still trailing US West, who have offset last year's losses and have now reached a gargantuan 220-170 (+50) cumulative Round 1 record.
Canada, on the other hand, have received the dubious honor of being the first team to cross 200 Round 1 losses (all time 178-209).
The fifth and last team to have participated in every top 16 of WCoP, Oceania, is amazingly yet to cross either 200 win or 200 losses - their all-time record is 197-192.

Europe and India recorded their best ever top 16 records, with 17-7 and 12-12 respectively, improving on their past records of 18-12 and 11-13.
US Northeast recorded their worst ever, at 10-14, one game worse than their 2020 record.

Germany extend their active playoff participation streak, now at 5, with US Midwest closely behind at 4. Both teams will need to keep things up for a few more years if they want to catch the all-time record of 7, though (shared by US East 2011-2017 and US West 2014-2020). No other teams have an active streak of even 3.

Of the playoff teams, Germany, Spain, Europe, US Midwest, and the winners of India vs UK, will all be chasing after their first WCoP title (India, of course, is chasing after their first playoff appearance at all). Only US West, France, and the winners of Italy vs Oceania could be repeat winners, making it fairly likely that we'll see a new champion for the 4th consecutive year.


Eight teams had logos made by Blazenix this year. Three finished top 6 (Europe, US West, Germany), two are facing each other in a 12-12 tiebreaker (India and UK), and the other three finished bottom 6 (US South, US Northeast, Canada). Perfectly balanced, as all things should be.
 
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Niko

is a Tiering Contributoris a Past WCoP Champion
World Defender
The IACGP (Italian Association for the Competitive Game of Pokemon) is happy to inform the International Community of Smogon that the notorious terrorists known as Ciro napoli and Kibo have been arrested in the attempted act of building troll teams to share with the tiebreaker players. In addition to this, they are respectively accused of compulsive clicking and serial schizotrolling and they are now detained in Poggioreale National Prison, waiting for their interrogation. We are still investigating in search of their accomplices. If you have any information regarding this incident to share, please contact us. Thank you for the attention.

Niko, IACGP Tribunal's Public Prosecutor
 
blunder vs Mushfiq
The downfall of NE vs the rise of Bangla matchup feels symptomatic of the times. Gone are the days of careful, meticulous planning from turn 1 to map out a chosen winpath. Instead, the metagame revolves around surprise sets and strong, hard-hitting pokemon, putting yourself in a good position early to snowball into victory. Blunder's playstyle, by contrast to other historically strong NE members, fits this description perfectly. He should have gone 3-0 in groups and has hardly put a foot wrong. I expect him to shaboimng Mushfiq with ease here. Mushfiq, like most of team Bangladesh, has brought straight offense in groups and got a nice win vs Punny, but I feel his teams have not been the best, which will be his downfall.

star vs Igniizard
Star has been excellent this tour, dominating a strong group to go 3-0. Igniizard also went positive with wins against false and killaleston, but I expect star to wrap this up, given his superior experience in high profile, tense situations.

nat vs SKC44
SKC44 looks to be one of the best players on team Bangladesh. I was impressed by both his teams and his plays. nat is also a good player but I expect SKC44 to bring a more proactive team to take advantage of nat's building tendencies and ultimately prevail.
 
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