Europe (5) vs (3) United Kingdom
Highv0ltag3 vs Trogba Trogba (60/40) - just overall better. should probably be 2-1 but overall has looked composed
Ruft vs xavgb (35/65)- think rufts godrun has hit a wall. xav is pretty hard to beat as is widely known, but even still sv has been his best results gen at least teamtour wise.
ZoroDark vs Ahsan-219 (40/60) - i was pretty surprised to see ahsan go 1-2 after a good g1 win but did get p unlucky in a game. i'd be further surprised to see him lose here if clean, unless europe totally owns him in the builder.
Lily vs Yelodash (51/49) - lily has found her groove this gen and her oppos in pools were a step up from spl. think this is her toughest oppo in this wcop so far. should be a good one and i wager the closest of the series. to me this is the biggest swing game, so gl.
Eeveeto vs 1 True Lycan (45/55) - 1tl has looked a lot better than in spl. Eeveeto seemed super poised for a good pools run but it's just agonizing to see him oversauce it in the builder. maybe sins absolved since europe's pool success but pretty alarming watch.
Kushalos vs Joeshh (60/40) - goat chef w. oppo made it far in an ou ssnl iirc? and 2-1 pools is good, but no reason to expect kush to fall here
Mana vs Stareal (60/40) - good player who i have heard cares a lot about tours involved in. stareal i imagine has more sv experience and is definitely competent, but just gonna trust overall perceived skill
McMeghan vs blittius (70/30) - biggest onpaper lopside, roro is roro and plays generally great games. blit lost to timer which can be pretty cringe for mental esp when spot looked fine, and now having to be vs mcm. think best shot here is just cheese and pray you get mu but no doubt euro will be prepped for it. just will have to be smart in how approach it, not to say it's Impossible blit could outplay w/o cheese. eye test says unlikely tho
US West (4) vs (4) Oceania
shiloh vs March Fires (60/40) - ocn's usual superstar looked fairly paltry on sv knowledge in quite a few of his games, getting bailed in one of them. rozes is pretty good across the board and generally won't put up super bad showings imo.
Attribute vs DugZa (65/35) - looked super solid in pools. shoulda been 2-1 if lax didn't own into self-own, but nonetheless really solid showings. dugza meanwhile had a lucked win vs blunder and didn't look great. what ever happened to that skarph guy lol.
Vaboh vs ninjadog (55/45) - more tenured ou in-and-out talent vs wcop hothand. can definitely be a cool game, but i think ninja will figure it out. i think they probably looked even-ish given pools & ninja being in farmville.
z0mOG vs damien the genius (45/55) - z0m is obviously more proven but i'm pretty unfamiliar with his sv singles knowledge. not a secret he is way more into vgc and his lone pools game wasn't too close. damien didn't do hot either but surely will put in the hours this week. his first playoff game i think? not sure.
Vert vs Aberforth (60/40) - hl of the series w/o question. vert needs no introduction in 2023, and aberforth is 5-2 in svou this year. the problem i have bolding abe is that his 2 losses come in spl semis & wcop tb. would ideally see him win bigger games before I bold him vs anyone good. Vert's potentially not as good as in shed meta but he still always shows a great grasp of both building & piloting.
PikachuZappyZap vs false (45/55) - false has more overall experience/games and isn't the false of super old. think he is good at getting good MUs, a cornerstone of why ocn has found their way to top 8. pzz is 1 for 2 in the wp column imo, which isn't too far off false. nonetheless gonna trust the captain to launch ocn to glory.
mushamu vs Chloe (65/35) - love chloe, but off this wcop looks like an uphill battle. 3-0 vs shaky 1-2. would love to be proven wrong!
Fusien vs etern (40/60) - etern to me looked way better in g2/g3 than g1. he had a pool of death and still emerged with a win, with an imo nearly unwinnable g3. i don't have a ton to say about fusien, he is more proven in some ways in ie olt qual but etern consistently has gone even or better in wcop, and vs good oppos every year.
Spain (4) vs (4) US Midwest
Dasmer vs dice (45/55) - pretty classic game of more experienced sver vs way more proven talent. dasmer has 1 official tour and dice has 24. that's probably one of the biggest disparities between opponents ever. just gonna assume compounded experience pays off here, no reason not to when he hasn't shown legit signs of falling off.
Trosko vs kythr (49/51) - kythr is a prodigy of performing well in the early tour sv ou games, 2/2 tour proven rate. trosk is obvs way more proven ou but I think it's a flip still. closest game of series, swing, yaddayadda.
SoulWind vs Tace (60/40)- boldwinned is consistently good to great. he's come a long way in sv from that ash game, lol. don't know why tace can't figure it out often in these, seems good enough to.
Ado vs oldspicemike (45/55) - kind of offradar sv performer (2-0 wcop, decent stour showing) vs starry's future hopes for the next 5 years of mw. mike looks good enough when plays. i like this game a lot, two for sure overlooked players.
Garay oak vs avarice (60/40) - just better. not close to impossible but would be hardpressed to imagine many bold against garay here.
Luispeikou vs FatFighter2 (55/45) - 2 players w/ a good r1 that may not be wildly rated. outside of spl luis has had a good year with ost run+3-0 here, so gonna trust him.
Malekith vs Kyo (65/35) - big disparity in pools impressing. way more tenured, surely will rob some broken team and put up a good fight. i expect kyo to get creative but idk if it'll be enough.
reiku vs ayevon (40/60) - ayevon is good at sv, but did throw his 1 loss. idt it'll mentally plague him and he should show up correct. not a lot to say about reiku beyond experienced player. 0 sv showings but who knows if played it alrdy.
France (3) vs (5) Germany
Fairy Peak vs Sylveon used calm mind (40/60) - this will be cheese's time to win
DonSalvatore vs Sylvi (65/35) - better player+more experienced. sylvi can get creative but don's creative too. think w/o great german engineering for MU he just outplays to submission.
Shafofficiel vs MichaelderBeste2 (35/65) - hard to pick against mdb2 rn. a far cry from sv spl. the mind gaming effect.
Carkoala vs mind gaming (40/60) - would probably be 30/70+ with mind vs nearly anyone. but this is france's star w/o question. think this is an unlucky pull for france because he is surely favored vs rest of team besides maybe mdb2. if he wins it'd be amazing for them though, and if anyone on the team he'd be the guy to do it. for all his praise i've given, he is still playing my partner in crime. even without that bias it seems an uphill battle. certified best game on-paper of the quarters.
RedEmption vs QWILY (62/38) - red looked solid r1 and qwily is solid overall. i was v surprised to see qwily go neg in pools, and many were surprised to see Red beat ox+giannis.
Quartosa vs Achimoo (45/55) - if mind is the most proven quarters game than this is probably the least. hard to achimoo and it hasnt been quart's year in sv.
mimilimi vs Ewin (60/40) - 1st hardcore sheet peek committing here, but i'm not too too high on ewin anyway. looks better than spl tho.
Unamed vs Fogbound Lake (45/55) - predicts sheet told me my 3-0 unamed was most off-average predict. he got close! think fogbound is better and continues to impress w solid fundamentals. no reason to think this won't be a good game though.
even though predicted 3-5, think france/germany is the best r1 series. would be shocked to see no tiebreaks, all series look fairly competitive.
