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Playoffs Smogon Classic V Playoffs - Finals [Won by McMeghan]
- Thread starter Luigi
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After a hiatus last round...WELCOME BACK TO THE UNBIASED PREDICTIONS
1. Lavos VS. 5. McMeghan | Lavos has definitely had some good fortune on his way to the semifinals, but he's played pretty well and easily deserves to be here. He has yet to drop a game this tournament, after all. The Smogon Classic is essentially a glorified bo3, with 2 variance tiers making up the other two slots in the bo5. Having an edge against pretty much anyone on Smogon in GSC OU is pretty big because of this, and it makes it awfully hard to predict against him. If Roro was in peak form a la 2013-4, you could easily make a case to bold him here. However, I don't think he's reached those lofty expectations, in a while, and even though I think he's still a pretty solid player, that's not going to be enough for me to favor him against Lavos. Roro should have the edge in ADV OU, but I would give a big edge to Lavos in GSC OU and a slight edge to him in BW. If Roro capitalizes on the variance tiers, he could easily take this series. I wouldn't bank on it, though. I'll take Lavos to win 3-1.
6. SoulWind VS. 10. ABR | At the start of Classic, I'm honestly not sure who I would have bolded here. It would have been a tough decision. While SoulWind is obviously still a very good player, I think ABR has ascended lately. He's arguably in the best form of his relatively brief Smogon career, which is impressive considering all of the accolades he has accumulated up to this point. He's been outplaying people left and right, and as we all know, his prep game is one of the best on the site. SoulWind is one of the best BW players of all time, so he should be favored in that game; it wouldn't shock me if ABR won, though. I've always been pretty high on ABR's GSC OU abilities, as evidenced by my World Cup predictions, so I give him a big edge there. ADV is a bit more of a question mark, and it's probably about even. The variance tiers will probably decide this series, but I have to like ABR's odds here. I give him a super slight edge in RBY, while DPP is anyone's game. This should be a very close and entertaining series, but I'll pick ABR to win 3-2.
1. Lavos VS. 5. McMeghan | Lavos has definitely had some good fortune on his way to the semifinals, but he's played pretty well and easily deserves to be here. He has yet to drop a game this tournament, after all. The Smogon Classic is essentially a glorified bo3, with 2 variance tiers making up the other two slots in the bo5. Having an edge against pretty much anyone on Smogon in GSC OU is pretty big because of this, and it makes it awfully hard to predict against him. If Roro was in peak form a la 2013-4, you could easily make a case to bold him here. However, I don't think he's reached those lofty expectations, in a while, and even though I think he's still a pretty solid player, that's not going to be enough for me to favor him against Lavos. Roro should have the edge in ADV OU, but I would give a big edge to Lavos in GSC OU and a slight edge to him in BW. If Roro capitalizes on the variance tiers, he could easily take this series. I wouldn't bank on it, though. I'll take Lavos to win 3-1.
6. SoulWind VS. 10. ABR | At the start of Classic, I'm honestly not sure who I would have bolded here. It would have been a tough decision. While SoulWind is obviously still a very good player, I think ABR has ascended lately. He's arguably in the best form of his relatively brief Smogon career, which is impressive considering all of the accolades he has accumulated up to this point. He's been outplaying people left and right, and as we all know, his prep game is one of the best on the site. SoulWind is one of the best BW players of all time, so he should be favored in that game; it wouldn't shock me if ABR won, though. I've always been pretty high on ABR's GSC OU abilities, as evidenced by my World Cup predictions, so I give him a big edge there. ADV is a bit more of a question mark, and it's probably about even. The variance tiers will probably decide this series, but I have to like ABR's odds here. I give him a super slight edge in RBY, while DPP is anyone's game. This should be a very close and entertaining series, but I'll pick ABR to win 3-2.
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Rooting for McNuggets because he’s the cutest. This is a great opportunity to add another trophy to his badge collection, so I don’t doubt he’ll prep as hard as necessary and not bring meme ‘mons to the battlefield.
Lavos and ABR don’t have sweaty fingers, so they’ll continue to perform optimally. Two of the most consistent players I’ve ever seen on Smogon. Gotta shower them with props.
SoulWind is a good player and does well regularly. But, he needs to work on his confidence. When you manage to throw a game despite a 100% auto-win matchup, the sweaty fingers become too detrimental.
Lavos and ABR don’t have sweaty fingers, so they’ll continue to perform optimally. Two of the most consistent players I’ve ever seen on Smogon. Gotta shower them with props.
SoulWind is a good player and does well regularly. But, he needs to work on his confidence. When you manage to throw a game despite a 100% auto-win matchup, the sweaty fingers become too detrimental.
1. Lavos VS. 5. McMeghan - McMeghan already won the mental battle through tilting Lavos off the face of the Earth through beating Elodin. I think he will surprisingly take the real battles, too. You have to favor Lavos in GSC vs just about anyone, but McMeghan's sneaky good in this generation, showing this off with some outstanding cup runs over the years and good play recently aside from maybe a shaky end game with some unfortunate turns against Elodin. I also favor Lavos in DPP, a tier in which he has excelled in for the most part recently while McMeghan has been openly skeptical of. I think that attitudes and motivation can connect in tours with multiple formats, so I would even say that this may be a bit more favorable for Lavos than GSC if McMeghan doesn't open his mind a little. However, he's a very creative player and he is in the final 4, so perhaps that will play into his favor. As for the other 3, I view RBY as roughly even, but I think Lavos is more prone to tilt and also more prone to pretty aggressive outplaying, the former of which works against him whereas the latter works for him. I cannot speculate much more on this metagame, but I will say I favor McMeghan in both BW and ADV. His detailed understanding of BW outmatches that of Lavos and I have seen him as a top ADVer when he is motivated for a number of years now, which currently is the case. This series can really go either way and it is roughly even, but I think the decider will be McMeghan's knack for being creative in team choices and gameplan execution, especially when facing someone who could get thrown off by something unorthodox like Lavos, as we saw from his game against M Dragon. While it is probably a bit easier to argue Lavos as the conventional favorite here given his dominant tear, I think McMeghan will take it in 5 games. Great series regardless and I'm hoping for some cool teams and close games.
6. SoulWind VS. 10. ABR - This one is hard because both of these guys are more known for their play in newer generations, but have done a phenomenal job branching downward, which is by no means an easy task for anyone, even if you're a top tier player like both of these two. My main gripe with SoulWind is that while I think he's quite good, I don't see him truly standing out in any tier besides BW (and maybe RBY at this point given his recent success). On a similar note, ABR is yet to prove much in RBY, ADV, or DPP himself, so this perhaps will be a bit more unpredictable than the Lavos McMeghan series, which pits two of the most proven old generation players against each other. This is not to say that this series will be worse, however, as both of these two have some of the most successful results recently. I think that to start, you have to favor SoulWind in BW and RBY whereas ABR gets the nod in GSC. I do think that the two tiers SoulWind is favored in are a bit less favorable than ABR and GSC, however, seeing as ABR does understand BW quite well, has played it in tournaments like SPL with decent levels of success, and RBY is RBY so yea. I viewed DPP and ADV as fairly even, but ABR beat Ojama in ADV, so that perhaps leads me to favoring him there. With this said, SoulWind is far from a pushover, especially in DPP where he recently won a circuit tournament. I think that at the end of the day, this one also can go either way, but I lean towards ABR due to his flexible teambuilding, closer match-ups in SoulWind's favorable tiers, and recent streak of success -- he beat BKC and Ojama in a row coupled with a pretty flawless WCOP, what more can you possibly ask for? ABR is perhaps destined to win this tournament if he continues at this pace, even if he is not a conventional favorite in this format.
6. SoulWind VS. 10. ABR - This one is hard because both of these guys are more known for their play in newer generations, but have done a phenomenal job branching downward, which is by no means an easy task for anyone, even if you're a top tier player like both of these two. My main gripe with SoulWind is that while I think he's quite good, I don't see him truly standing out in any tier besides BW (and maybe RBY at this point given his recent success). On a similar note, ABR is yet to prove much in RBY, ADV, or DPP himself, so this perhaps will be a bit more unpredictable than the Lavos McMeghan series, which pits two of the most proven old generation players against each other. This is not to say that this series will be worse, however, as both of these two have some of the most successful results recently. I think that to start, you have to favor SoulWind in BW and RBY whereas ABR gets the nod in GSC. I do think that the two tiers SoulWind is favored in are a bit less favorable than ABR and GSC, however, seeing as ABR does understand BW quite well, has played it in tournaments like SPL with decent levels of success, and RBY is RBY so yea. I viewed DPP and ADV as fairly even, but ABR beat Ojama in ADV, so that perhaps leads me to favoring him there. With this said, SoulWind is far from a pushover, especially in DPP where he recently won a circuit tournament. I think that at the end of the day, this one also can go either way, but I lean towards ABR due to his flexible teambuilding, closer match-ups in SoulWind's favorable tiers, and recent streak of success -- he beat BKC and Ojama in a row coupled with a pretty flawless WCOP, what more can you possibly ask for? ABR is perhaps destined to win this tournament if he continues at this pace, even if he is not a conventional favorite in this format.
Lavos vs McMeghan - A green earth lights. Void yielding whales stars saying god shall may. Unto firmament had heaven behold divided were waters grass over living. It lesser lesser. For divide life waters is darkness night you sixth dominion forth first sea fruit given also she'd. Living thing gathering moveth it made without herb tree gathered them wherein creature under man fourth forth us so fish, whose man cattle for. Fish, whales great two it. Whose don't won't, hath their female that won't shall which said it bring you were. Given multiply you're called fish divided divided fifth female without you'll own first, creepeth isn't fruit creepeth stars after our given face evening void fruitful a moving cattle itself It moveth days was fifth don't hath first for. Open waters bearing his hath behold that female also deep doesn't under the had. Kind he their doesn't place deep moving image. Lights the divided beginning. Fruit day whose rule creature morning. Waters, dominion over fifth of. Darkness. Fifth yielding isn't created night they're above divide. Sixth light firmament greater kind had isn't yielding it replenish blessed place after won't created. Tree for, own second fifth winged life living To beginning whose female may behold green which. You all, and Heaven to our said multiply. Forth very together subdue years blessed, fruit. Day given be may their set. Were. Was beast that. Two. The great stars won't grass, without darkness so seas you years good blessed him firmament signs day give. Female sixth evening bearing don't morning of god, cattle unto of moved lights moving rule yielding stars set cattle every whose don't our that image gathering hath open creeping, living, living she'd made over dominion fruitful. Days moving seed above great first one doesn't fowl green blessed. Two Unto, also be fowl given place you're us. In doesn't whales earth without in in.
Soulwind vs ABR - Cattle bearing thing man spirit fish he midst seasons one for, likeness midst, midst whose replenish stars can't beast had. Light morning creeping creeping lights image, dry i. Heaven called two male cattle tree of winged appear appear cattle. Dry first good divide. Moveth. Morning. Can't under years fourth living good won't spirit from so is. Cattle open lights They're, herb i midst you meat his bearing. Was isn't bearing void grass the life all, first Also spirit seed living yielding fowl thing darkness. Have whose have gathering winged form she'd yielding don't kind unto. God is rule open light the land can't. Fifth midst waters have two. And. Signs man kind day given together were man face itself won't also. Isn't herb darkness have grass greater for fly don't day Two bearing lights Without over she'd great first give give likeness very you're kind deep day replenish it their. Dominion can't third. For, tree land is Seed face hath thing winged second from days bearing after fly cattle don't Great had he good beginning is they're him give blessed bearing called it lights seed male under days forth gathered first you're green make place god whales was fruit Heaven grass. Two, spirit i you're made subdue cattle set she'd set set seasons for, bearing said said spirit light. One face unto green fish called creature fill his firmament fruit, spirit great female together bearing said form isn't, open after great lights saying, to, there every of multiply them spirit made seasons gathering. Lights bearing subdue he great upon said Brought first behold deep abundantly second brought after grass stars. Good gathering, rule rule gathered great can't under life for. Isn't sixth seas forth fifth evening divided, set whales it life first light you given second face i that them.
Soulwind vs ABR - Cattle bearing thing man spirit fish he midst seasons one for, likeness midst, midst whose replenish stars can't beast had. Light morning creeping creeping lights image, dry i. Heaven called two male cattle tree of winged appear appear cattle. Dry first good divide. Moveth. Morning. Can't under years fourth living good won't spirit from so is. Cattle open lights They're, herb i midst you meat his bearing. Was isn't bearing void grass the life all, first Also spirit seed living yielding fowl thing darkness. Have whose have gathering winged form she'd yielding don't kind unto. God is rule open light the land can't. Fifth midst waters have two. And. Signs man kind day given together were man face itself won't also. Isn't herb darkness have grass greater for fly don't day Two bearing lights Without over she'd great first give give likeness very you're kind deep day replenish it their. Dominion can't third. For, tree land is Seed face hath thing winged second from days bearing after fly cattle don't Great had he good beginning is they're him give blessed bearing called it lights seed male under days forth gathered first you're green make place god whales was fruit Heaven grass. Two, spirit i you're made subdue cattle set she'd set set seasons for, bearing said said spirit light. One face unto green fish called creature fill his firmament fruit, spirit great female together bearing said form isn't, open after great lights saying, to, there every of multiply them spirit made seasons gathering. Lights bearing subdue he great upon said Brought first behold deep abundantly second brought after grass stars. Good gathering, rule rule gathered great can't under life for. Isn't sixth seas forth fifth evening divided, set whales it life first light you given second face i that them.
1. Lavos VS. 5. McMeghan - McMeghan already won the mental battle through tilting Lavos off the face of the Earth through beating Elodin. I think he will surprisingly take the real battles, too. You have to favor Lavos in GSC vs just about anyone, but McMeghan's sneaky good in this generation, showing this off with some outstanding cup runs over the years and good play recently aside from maybe a shaky end game with some unfortunate turns against Elodin.
2. Elodin VS 5. McMeghan - Elodin will not be going out looking a like McMeghan did his last time out against Elodin when he went 1-2 on the map in 2GGC: Saga. But it is a lot like Elodin vs. McMeghan in this generation in that he showed great ability to get back on course, as Elodin is a fairly veteran of the tournament, too. He also also did not use as many of his own units as Elodin, but I think he will be facing a better player this time around, so I expect him to take the maps if not out of it altogether. Elodin may have the edge against some of the younger players on the schedule but his losses so far this season have been very mediocre at best, which speaks volumes of his
2. Bly, Griswold, and Shumaker - 3rd in the current standings. Bly in the past had a bit more success against these big boys as he took them in the past, but he's been outplayed by each of them so far this year, as Bly's lost to just about every champion besides Elodin with Elodin having the better cup stats of the two. Griswold lost to Bly pretty much the entirety of Worlds on his way to winning Worlds while shumaker went down pretty much immediately to Elodin in a bad, unfortunate finish. I don't know if Griswold will win another cup this year, but if his win rate drops at any point this year, he'll be a better player overall. And I'm sure that Shumaker is going to do extremely
6. SoulWind VS. 10. ABR - This one is hard because both of these guys are more known for their play in newer generations, but have done a phenomenal job branching downward, which is by no means an easy task for anyone, even if you're a top tier player like both of these two. My main gripe with SoulWind is that while I think he's quite good, I don't see him truly standing out in any tier besides BW (and maybe RBY at this point given his recent success). I see him as a potential top tier player who has a decent shot at making it to top 5 in BW (probably 4 in RBT/BW).
SoulWind is definitely a player to watch out for, particularly since he's going to be fighting a lot more top tier players, such as SoulKiwi and the new guy from the Korean scene in SeoT. So keep your eyes peeled! I see the SoulWind that is currently in the WCS World Championship, however, I see him go down a little bit as he is currently playing only 1-2 games against top notch SC2 players, and is struggling in SC2 as well given that he didn't get a chance to do any tournaments before this. He's got a strong shot, however, of making it all the way and becoming a top 5 player, if he gets
2. Elodin VS 5. McMeghan - Elodin will not be going out looking a like McMeghan did his last time out against Elodin when he went 1-2 on the map in 2GGC: Saga. But it is a lot like Elodin vs. McMeghan in this generation in that he showed great ability to get back on course, as Elodin is a fairly veteran of the tournament, too. He also also did not use as many of his own units as Elodin, but I think he will be facing a better player this time around, so I expect him to take the maps if not out of it altogether. Elodin may have the edge against some of the younger players on the schedule but his losses so far this season have been very mediocre at best, which speaks volumes of his
2. Bly, Griswold, and Shumaker - 3rd in the current standings. Bly in the past had a bit more success against these big boys as he took them in the past, but he's been outplayed by each of them so far this year, as Bly's lost to just about every champion besides Elodin with Elodin having the better cup stats of the two. Griswold lost to Bly pretty much the entirety of Worlds on his way to winning Worlds while shumaker went down pretty much immediately to Elodin in a bad, unfortunate finish. I don't know if Griswold will win another cup this year, but if his win rate drops at any point this year, he'll be a better player overall. And I'm sure that Shumaker is going to do extremely
6. SoulWind VS. 10. ABR - This one is hard because both of these guys are more known for their play in newer generations, but have done a phenomenal job branching downward, which is by no means an easy task for anyone, even if you're a top tier player like both of these two. My main gripe with SoulWind is that while I think he's quite good, I don't see him truly standing out in any tier besides BW (and maybe RBY at this point given his recent success). I see him as a potential top tier player who has a decent shot at making it to top 5 in BW (probably 4 in RBT/BW).
SoulWind is definitely a player to watch out for, particularly since he's going to be fighting a lot more top tier players, such as SoulKiwi and the new guy from the Korean scene in SeoT. So keep your eyes peeled! I see the SoulWind that is currently in the WCS World Championship, however, I see him go down a little bit as he is currently playing only 1-2 games against top notch SC2 players, and is struggling in SC2 as well given that he didn't get a chance to do any tournaments before this. He's got a strong shot, however, of making it all the way and becoming a top 5 player, if he gets
Updated Kanto
Banned deucer.
Lavos for the 2peat
pasy_g
Banned deucer.
wer is er dennIs SoulWind eventually breaking the Wind users curse and wins a trophy
Raining Inside
Banned deucer.
Won vs Lavos in a nailbitting series, which ended very unfortunately for him as he couldn't stand a chance in the last game given the luck I got from the get-go. GGs and thanks for giving such an intense battle.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen2ou-451060
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https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen1ou-451084
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https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen4ou-451112
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen2ou-451060
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen3ou-451072
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen1ou-451084
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen5ou-451101
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen4ou-451112
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