NOC Bard's College Mafia - Day Three

[MoodyCloud]

still catching up and my main town read goes and gets killed

 

[Aura Guardian]

Just went back to look at stuff mxmts and knights posted.

Sadly, not much from mxmts to figure out.

Knights had a bit more.
Early:
--> anti: busy+fluffy over busy+helpful or absent+unknown
--> anti: SECOND guy on RVS wagon. A little susp of nadroj but more of mxmts
--> susp of bluedoom, opposed to my read.
--> pro: Proph, though after proph led the changewagon, I'm not so sure of that
--> not sure what to make of #130 re: hitmonleet and proph
--> looks at Jalmont, then votes him
--> votes Granny Pie
--> figures meow/champ not scumbuddies

Gonna look more into Granny and Jalmont.

 

[MoodyCloud]

not sure what happened with the lynch but the texas/FH posts where they hl each other to avoid tie is interesting

 

[MoodyCloud]

well,are*

 

[Prophylaxis]

acidphoenix - Were any of KoC's abilities used? You stated mxmts's ability usage, but we have no idea if any of KoC's abilities were. Is this meant to be a thing?

 

[Prophylaxis]

First off, I agree with others that we should probably not resolve Champ until the end of Night 3, when their alignment will be revealed, because her alignment is self-resolving.

It's either a town investigative ability that did this, or scum trying to resolve a weird role cop-like ability. But in that case, why would it be Champ, whose alignment is pretty key to solving this game, versus someone who would be beneficial to be rolecopped?

 

[Prophylaxis]

I guess it's time for me to claim. Yes? No?

You should probably claim as well as be more active.

You were about to be lynched Yesterday and only some serendipity caused you to escape out of the lynch. Why should we read you as town? Why shouldn't I vote you right now?

 

[Aura Guardian]

IMO no claim just yet.

 

[Former]

Don't like Former Hope atm. Didn't really push a lynch and didn't say anything about Champ until #306. #327 looks bad because the side note is irrelevant. If you think Champ is scum, and you're bringing in the point about mafia using it on her, then why aren't you voting her?

Being paranoid and saying publicly to not automatically trust a public inspect ≠ thinking someone is scum

Really not sure how you got there.

 

[Aura Guardian]

Granny Pie:
meme, omgus as knights noted, voted earlio despite not scumreading them, more random vote pressure when already on 8th page, fluff post

Jalmont:
5 whole joke posts before going after mxmts, then returns to posting lots of small things - mostly banter and an occasional jab with some but not much on it. Goes after texas, who... hasn't Haruno cleared texas? and doesn't vote him anyway. Banter towards Proph is slightly anti-Granny Pie? But it also feels like it could be stealth devil's advocate to be pro-Granny. Later, he goads proph towards mxmts. Makes a large post with short reads. Then turns anti-texas, and a bit anti-proph.

___

Vote Granny Pie for now and that omgus, but I'll want to look more into Former Hope, Texas Cloverleaf, and Prophylaxis soon.

 

[Prophylaxis]

Good notes from Texas with the reread; if the cop check hadn't been resolved on him then I admit that I would have gotten a little nervous that he composed it in scumchat but I'm glad that I can trust them.

im kinda biased against aura guardian cause i really dont like their playstyle so everything i see from them will look scummy but something like #13 is really easy to say as mafia for 'town cred'

Texas, what do you think of this post from bluedoom where he's townreading AG:

Townreading Aura Guardian; its weird and unlikely for mafia to unvote based on being unsure of Champ's play only to then vote Champ again based on some voter on the wagon providing more evidence in the case.

I'm really confused wrt Aura Guardian's alignment right now, bluedoom posted something that would be /weird/ for mafia to do but I don't know if it's actually a towntell.

jordan is town im pretty sure, i think i've picked up reads on him from the last game and if he's not i should be able to tell

Explain this townread on xNadroj a little more? Not really getting what you mean by that sentence.

off wagon should be the focus of scumhunting for today, the main wagons are awkward to analyze and should be mostly ignored given the flash nature but i'm hesitant to say there's more than one scum among them, off wagon however i confidently expect a minimum of three scum to be in

You don't think that there was scum who would be happy to vote off a townie there?

 

[Prophylaxis]

I'm confused by this

why would you jump on it if it was easy to justify? lack of better options? for funsies?

I thought that mxmts was scum because of his awkward opening posts, but he then just completely vanished throughout the latter half of the Day. The scummy RVS stuff, plus his vanishing, made lynching him extremely easy to justify, because he was doing nothing townie. Then he flips town. Now, I can't really analyze mxmts's wagon super well because no matter what alignment you are you can easily justify scumreading him. Take for example Jalmont - is Jalmont town who was convinced that mxmts was newb scum, or scum trying to push the easiest mislynch on the planet?

I have no idea, and that's why I didn't really like a lurker lynch Day 1. But mxmts still provided zero content so yeah.

 

[Prophylaxis]

When I have time I'll take my own look at Bloody's posts; the problem is that they're not super into real time interacting nor all that active, so it's kind of tough to discern their actual alignment.

Texas, explain your scumread on MeowMixx? I could be biased since they're into real time (pretty much exact opposite of Bloody) but I feel like MeowMixx is at least attempting to gamesolve.

 

[Prophylaxis]

Jalmont/Texas feels like town on town to me.

oh i literally had abandoned this game because i thought i was gonna get turbo'd

..

my role is being public? im not really strong so doesn't really matter

Can you please please please be more active Today instead of lurking things out. Your input is pretty valuable no matter what alignment you are because of the delayed cop check, so yeah.

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Probabilistically there's definitely a scum on the main wagon/counterwagon but I'm less confident in determining that through additional hunting than I am through the off wagon which has a greater inherent probability anyway

Jordan was scum in the last game we played and I picked up on it pretty easily, I'm not getting the same vibe in this one

Would have to think harder on the blue/ag thing, on the surface it's NAI

Thoughts on meow?

 

[Prophylaxis]

granny pie, earlio town

Explain this.

Explain your reads please. I can't figure out your alignment without you at least trying to give me some insight into how/what you're thinking.

 

[Prophylaxis]

Probabilistically there's definitely a scum on the main wagon/counterwagon but I'm less confident in determining that through additional hunting than I am through the off wagon which has a greater inherent probability anyway

Jordan was scum in the last game we played and I picked up on it pretty easily, I'm not getting the same vibe in this one

Would have to think harder on the blue/ag thing, on the surface it's NAI

Thoughts on meow?

Fair enough; I usually like to look at the main wagon because there's almost always at least one scum there.

OK, I'll trust you on Jordan, especially since I have a tough time getting a handle on his alignment myself.

I listed my thoughts on Meow above.

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Scumread on meow is mostly based in their content, they're looking better today so far but everything I saw D1 looked like textbook examples of things mafia says to appear towny rather than towny driven thoughts themselves

 

[Prophylaxis]

Vote tonithetourguide

Voting a lurker again but I feel like he has a pretty decent chance to flip red. I want to actually follow up on FH's prodding theory from before.

 

[acidphoenix]

yes used abilities are revealed; no koc hadnt used any

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

The one biggest wagonomics takeaway I learned from mafiascum is that there's always three wagons the scum fit into, the successful wagon, the counterwagon, and the "not voting" and/or off wagon, especially the not voting. No one ever intuitively thinks to look at the not voters as a collective wagon, and scum doesn't think to disguise their votes among it. Successful wagons and counterwagons rarely have more than one scum on them due to the nature of suspicion when a town flips and in a setup like this where we most likely have five scum the off wagon starts looking very juicy

 

[Prophylaxis]

Scumread on meow is mostly based in their content, they're looking better today so far but everything I saw D1 looked like textbook examples of things mafia says to appear towny rather than towny driven thoughts themselves

OK, once again if I have time I'll do a more focused reread but not right now.

Tfw RVS OMGUS is suspicious
Tfw outside of that this is actually a really good read list
Tfw you agree with a read list that reads you as scum

That moment when you get suspected because you have a life and not enough time to make loads and loads of posts.

All of these sentences are really self-conscious coming from Hitmonleet.

Hitmonleet can you link me your last completed town and scum game?

 

[Prophylaxis]

The one biggest wagonomics takeaway I learned from mafiascum is that there's always three wagons the scum fit into, the successful wagon, the counterwagon, and the "not voting" and/or off wagon, especially the not voting. No one ever intuitively thinks to look at the not voters as a collective wagon, and scum doesn't think to disguise their votes among it. Successful wagons and counterwagons rarely have more than one scum on them due to the nature of suspicion when a town flips and in a setup like this where we most likely have five scum the off wagon starts looking very juicy

Fair enough; I haven't really thought about grouping off the off wagons all together like that. I've always ONLY looked at the main wagon, but I come from sites that heavily prioritize voting and rarely have people abstaining.

I can dig through votes in a bit after finishing catching up.

 

[Prophylaxis]

Don't like Former Hope atm. Didn't really push a lynch and didn't say anything about Champ until #306. #327 looks bad because the side note is irrelevant. If you think Champ is scum, and you're bringing in the point about mafia using it on her, then why aren't you voting her?

What do you think about the points I brought up Yesterday about FH's thought processes?

To be fair it hinges on one very important interaction instead of a large body of work, which always freaks me out, but I think that interaction is pretty strong.

 

[Prophylaxis]

yes used abilities are revealed; no koc hadnt used any

Why would you not use the poison on Granny? Eh.

OK let me bring up the playerlist to figure out who I am interested in lynching versus who I am not.